The year 2022 was marked by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and its economic and geopolitical consequences, a strong inflation and the continued uncertainty linked to the situation of the Chinese economy.

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine had multiple effects on the global economy and hit the European continent stronger than other regions.

• First, the various waves of sanctions have created difficulties for the industry sector that added to the supply-chain disruptions and bottlenecks that predated the war and were caused by the post-covid synchronised recovery.
• Second, the weaponization of energy policy by the Russian government and the subsequent decoupling efforts made by the EU to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels led to an important supply shock for the European economy that spread to various time horizons on energy markets.

Although these effects seem to have been partly absorbed by the European economy, they caused important inflationary effects, that increased further the general trend observed as postpandemic economies restarted.

The global economy grew by 3.4% in 2022, and is expected to grow by 2.9 % in 2023, according to the IMF January forecast

Global inflation seems to have peaked in 2022 (8.8%) and is expected to slow down in 2023 (6.6%) and 2024 (4.3%). This is in line with the general tightening of monetary policies across the globe. This general shift of the European economy also created new vulnerabilities, such as a greater exposure to the international LNG market and therefore to the Asian demand for energy.

Indeed, the Chinese economy had been in slow-motion for most of the third quarter of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 due to the ongoing the zero-covid policy. However the easing of such strict policies observed early in 2023 is already giving signs of recovery for the Chinese economy, which is in turn likely to generate tensions on global commodity prices.